Critical Points Inward History In Addition To Social Media

Recent posts receive got grappled amongst the interesting topic of stage transitions inward physics ( link , link , link ). One argue ...

Recent posts receive got grappled amongst the interesting topic of stage transitions inward physics (link, link, link). One argue for beingness interested inward this topic is its possible relevance to the social world, where precipitous changes of the world inward the social plenum are rare exactly known occurrences. The eruption of protestation inward numerous countries across the Middle East together with North Africa during the Arab Spring is ane example. Essentially nosotros tin push clit these incidents equally moments when ordinary citizens are transformed from quiescent members of civil society, pursuing their private lives equally best they can, to engaged activists assembling at cracking run a peril inward large demonstrations. Is this an instance of a stage transition? And are at that spot observable indicators that powerfulness allow researchers to explicate together with sometimes anticipate such critical points?

There is a cracking bargain of interesting enquiry underway on these topics inward the champaign of complex systems together with communications theory. The processes together with phenomena that researchers are identifying look to receive got a cracking bargain of importance both for agreement electrical current social dynamics together with potentially for changing undesirable outcomes.

Researchers on the dynamics of volume social media receive got addressed the enquiry of critical transitions. Kuehn, Martens, together with Romero (2014) render an interesting approach inward their article, "Critical transitions inward social network activity" (link). Also of involvement is Daniel Romero's "An epidemiological approach to the spread of political 3rd parties", co-authored amongst Christopher Kribs-Zaleta, Anuj Mubayi, together with Clara Orbe (link).

Here is the abstract for "Critical transitions":

A large variety of complex systems inward ecology, climate science, biomedicine together with technology scientific discipline receive got been observed to exhibit tipping points, where the dynamical the world of the organisation abruptly changes. For exam- ple, such critical transitions may final result inward the precipitous alter of ecological environments together with climate conditions. Data together with models suggest that detectable alert signs may precede some of these drastic events. This catch is also corroborated past times abstract mathematical theory for generic bifurcations inward stochastic multi-scale systems. Whether such stochastic scaling laws used equally alert signs for a priori unknown events inward guild are acquaint inward social networks is an exciting opened upward problem, to which at acquaint alone highly speculative answers tin endure given. Here, nosotros instead render a get-go pace towards tackling a simpler enquiry past times focusing on a priori known events together with analyse a social media information laid upward amongst a focus on classical variance together with autocorrelation alert signs. Our results therefore pertain to ane absolutely fundamental question: Can the stochastic alert signs known from other areas also endure detected inward large-scale social media data? We reply this enquiry affirmatively equally nosotros discovery that several a priori known events are preceded past times variance together with autocorrelation growth. Our findings therefore clearly constitute the necessary starting betoken to farther investigate the human relationship betwixt abstract mathematical theory together with various classes of critical transitions inward social networks.

They usage the thought of a tipping betoken rather than a stage transition, exactly at that spot seems to be an of import parallel betwixt the 2 ideas. (Here are a few prior posts on continuity together with tipping points; link, link.) Here is they define the thought of a critical transition: "A critical transition may informally endure defined equally a rapid together with drastic alter of a time-dependent dynamical system" (2). The alert signs they consider are formal together with statistical rather than substantive: increasing variance together with rising auto-correlation:

Two of the close classical alert signs are rising variance together with rising auto-correlation before a critical transition [10,28]. The theory behind these alert signs is described inward to a greater extent than exceptional inward Appendix A. The basic thought is that if a drastic alter is induced past times a critical (bifurcation) point, together with so the underlying deterministic dynamics becomes less stable. Hence, the noisy fluctuations move to a greater extent than dominant equally the decay charge per unit of measurement decreases about the critical transition. As a result, (a) the variance inward the signal increases, due to the stronger fluctuations together with (b) the system’s the world retentivity (i.e., auto-correlation) increases, due to smaller deterministic contraction onto a unmarried the world [10,11]. It tin endure shown that both alert signs are related via a suitable fluctuation–dissipation relation [29]. (2)

Below are the information they acquaint showing statistical associations of hashtag frequencies for impending known events -- Halloween, Thanksgiving, together with Christmas. The X panels stand upward for the give-and-take frequency of the hashtag; the V panels stand upward for the variance, together with R represents autocorrelation on the fourth dimension serial of give-and-take frequency.

It is manifestly from the graphs of these variables that the frequency, variance, together with autocorrelation statistics for the relevant hashtags demonstrate a rising tendency equally they approach the trial together with autumn off steeply next the event; so these statistics post-dict the trial effectively. But of course of teaching at that spot is no value inward predicting the occurrence of Halloween based on the frequency of #halloween before inward October; nosotros know that Oct 31 volition presently occur. The hard enquiry enquiry posed hither is whether it is possible to position alert signs for unknown impending events. The authors practice non all the same receive got an reply to this question, exactly they offering a provocative hypothesis: "These fourth dimension serial illustrate that at that spot is a variety of potentially novel dynamical behaviors inward large-scale social networks close large spikes that deserve to endure investigated inward their ain right." (4). This suggests several questions for futurity investigation:

• How practice nosotros define when a critical transition occurs inward the information for an a priori unknown event? 
• For a priori unknown events, is at that spot a possibility to position hashtags or other aspects of the message which allow us to create upward one's hear the best alert sign? 
• Can nosotros link alert signs inward social networks to a priori unknown critical transitions exterior a social network? 
• Which models of social networks tin re-produce critical transitions observed inward data? 

Also of involvement for issues raised previously inward is Romero, Kribs-Zaleta, Mubayi, together with Orbe's "An epidemiological approach to the spread of political 3rd parties" (link, link). Their newspaper uses the instance of Green Party activism equally an empirical case. Here is their abstract:

Abstract. Third political parties are influential inward shaping American politics. In this run nosotros report the spread of a 3rd political party ideology inward a voting population where nosotros assume that political party members/activists are to a greater extent than influential inward recruiting novel 3rd political party voters than non-member 3rd political party voters. The report uses an epidemiological metaphor to prepare a theoretical model amongst nonlinear ordinary differential equations equally applied to a instance study, the Green Party. Considering long-term behavior, nosotros position 3 threshold parameters inward our model that push clit the dissimilar possible scenarios for the political political party together with its spread. We also apply the model to the report of the Green Party’s growth using voting together with registration information inward half dozen states together with the District of Columbia to position together with explicate trends over the past times decade. Our organisation produces a backward bifurcation that helps position weather nether which a sufficiently dedicated activist pith tin enable a 3rd political party to thrive, nether weather which would non ordinarily allow it to arise. Our results explicate the critical purpose activists play inward sustaining grassroots movements nether adverse conditions.

And hither is the basic intuition underlying the analysis of this paper:

We usage an epidemiological image to interpret 3rd political party emergence from a political phenomenon to a mathematical ane where nosotros assume that 3rd parties grow inward a similar fashion equally epidemics inward a population. We receive got this approach next inward the steps of previous theoretical studies that model social issues via such methods. The epidemiological metaphor is suggested past times the supposition that individuals’ decisions are influenced past times the collective peer pressure level generated past times others’ behavior; the “contacts” betwixt these 2 groups’ ideas are analogous to the contact processes that cause the spread of infectious diseases. (2)

Their approach makes usage of a organisation of differential equations to push clit the conduct of the population equally a whole based on specific assumptions. It would seem that the work could endure approached using an agent-based model equally well. This newspaper is relevant to the full general topic of critical points inward social conduct equally well, since it attempts to discovery the weather nether which a social displace similar third-party mobilization volition accelerate rather than decay.

Also of involvement to the topic of large dynamic social processes together with social media is R. Kelly Garrett together with Paul Resnick, "Resisting political fragmentation on the Internet" (link). Here is their abstract:

Abstract: Must the Internet promote political fragmentation? Although this is a possible outcome of personalized online news, nosotros debate that other futures are possible together with that thoughtful blueprint could promote to a greater extent than socially desirable behavior. Research has shown that individuals crave persuasion reinforcement to a greater extent than than they avoid exposure to various viewpoints together with that, inward many situations, hearing the other side is desirable. We suggest that, equipped amongst this knowledge, software designers ought to create tools that encourage together with facilitate consumption of various tidings streams, making users, together with society, meliorate off. We suggest several techniques to assist accomplish this goal. One approach focuses on making useful or intriguing opinion-challenges to a greater extent than accessible. The other centers on nudging people toward diverseness past times creating environments that accentuate its benefits. Advancing enquiry inward this surface area is critical inward the confront of increasingly partisan tidings media, together with nosotros believe these strategies tin help.

This enquiry besides is highly relevant to the dynamic social processes through which largescale social changes occur, together with especially so inward the electrical current climate of mistaken tidings together with deliberate political polarization.

(It is interesting that social media together with the Internet come upward into this floor inward several dissimilar ways. Google employee together with Egyptian activist Wael Ghonim played a fundamental purpose inward the early on stages of activation of the uprisings inward Cairo inward 2011. His book, Revolution 2.0: The Power of the People Is Greater Than the People inward Power: Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Memoir, is a fascinating exposure to some of the details of these events, together with the brusk volume Wael Ghonim... Facebook together with The Uprising inward Egypt by Dhananjay Bijale specifically addresses the purpose that Ghonim together with FaceBook played inward the mobilization of ordinary immature Egyptians.)