One defect of the ABMs considered inward the prior post well-nigh the emergence of civil conflict is that they practise non contain the w...
One defect of the ABMs considered inward the prior post well-nigh the emergence of civil conflict is that they practise non contain the workings of organizations into the dynamics of mobilization. And nonetheless scholars similar Tilly (Dynamics of Contention) as well as Bianco (Peasants without the Party: Grassroots Movements inward Twentieth Century China) acquire far clear that organizations are critical to the evolution as well as reach of mobilization of a populace. So a model of civil conflict needs to hold upwardly able to contain the effects of organizations inward the mobilization as well as activation of large groups of private agents. Here I volition explore what nosotros mightiness desire from an ABM that incorporates organizations.
Ideally I would similar to meet a model that incorporates:
- NxN private actors (50x50 inward the diagram above, or 2,500 agents)
- M organizations with unlike characteristics competing for membership alongside the actors
- A calculation of "uprising behavior" based on the internet activation of a threshold percent of actors inward a circumscribed region
How mightiness organizations hold upwardly introduced into an agent-based model of social contention? I tin terminate imagine ii quite unlike approaches. (A) We mightiness hold off at organizations every bit higher-level agents inside the process. As each organisation plant its agency through the population it gains or loses members; as well as this affects private conduct as well as the geographical distribution of activated agents. This would hold upwardly an endeavour to straight model the machinery of mobilization through organizational mobilization. (B) Another possible as well as simpler approach is to stand upwardly for organizations every bit environmental factors, analogous to affliction vectors, which percolate through the population of first-order agents as well as alteration their behavior. Let's consider both.
(A) Organizations every bit meso-level agents. The starting fourth dimension approach requires that nosotros supply rules of conduct for both kinds of agents, as well as recognize that the ii processes (organizational recruitment as well as private action) may influence each other iteratively. Organizations compete for members as well as strive to practise collective activity inward back upwardly of their agendas. Membership inward an organisation influences the private thespian past times increasing activation. And increasing membership influences the performance of the organization.
Individual actors gain organizational properties when they are recruited to ane of the organizations. Suppose that private actors convey these properties (largely drawn from the Epstein model):
Individual actors gain organizational properties when they are recruited to ane of the organizations. Suppose that private actors convey these properties (largely drawn from the Epstein model):
- grievance level
- risk aversiveness
- income level
- salience of ethnicity for identity
- location
- Organization-driven properties of activation
- derived: score of activation (probability of involvement inward response to an appeal from the organization)
If nosotros desire to model organizations every bit agents, thence nosotros take away to specify their properties as well as activity rules every bit well. We mightiness start past times specifying that organizations convey properties that conduct upon their actions as well as their powerfulness to recruit:
- content of political agenda / telephone band to action
- perceived effectiveness
- real effectiveness
- number of cadres devoted to mobilization effort
For a simulation of inter-group conflict, nosotros would similar to include ii ethnic groups, as well as ane or to a greater extent than organizations competing inside each group.
Mobilization occurs at the private level: actors have invitations to membership sequentially, as well as they response according to the internet lawsuit of their electrical flow characteristics. Once an thespian has affiliated, he/she remains susceptible to appeals from other organizations, simply the susceptibility is reduced.
Membership inward an organisation affects an individual's score of appointment inward a laid of grievance issues as well as his/her propensity for action. Individuals may limited their organizational condition at a gain of levels of activism:
This approach suggests evolution of ii stages of simulation: starting fourth dimension a simulation of the contest of ii organizations inside a group; as well as second, a simulation of the individual-level results of calls to activity past times multiple organizations involving a specified distribution of organizational affiliations.
(B) Organizations every bit infection vectors. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 simpler approach is to stand upwardly for the diverse organizations every bit contagious diseases that convey differential infection rates depending on agent properties, as well as differential effects on conduct depending on which "infection" is nowadays inward a given agent. Presumably the likelihood of infection is influenced past times whether the private has already been recruited past times to a greater extent than or less other organization; this needs to hold upwardly represented inward the rules governing infection. It likewise implies that at that topographic point is a fair amount of path dependence inward the simulation: the organisation that starts starting fourth dimension has an payoff over competitors.
It seems it would hold upwardly possible to contain a affliction machinery into the Epstein model to gain a role for organizations inward the occurrence of civil unrest.
Now imagine running the model forwards with ii types of processes occurring simultaneously. The organizations recruit members iteratively as well as the activation condition of each private is calculated on each tick of the model. At each tick every private has a membership condition with honour to the organizations ("infections"), as well as each has an activation score (low, medium, high). When a concentration of, say, 40% of agents are activated to a high score inward a percentage of a given size, this constitutes an episode of uprising / ethnic violence / civil unrest.
Two primal questions arise well-nigh this hypothetical simulation. First, is the simulation supposition that "organizational mobilization is similar an infectious disease" a reasonable one? Or does organizational mobilization convey unlike structural as well as population dynamics than the spread of a disease? For example, diseases percolate through conduct contact; mayhap organizational mobilization has to a greater extent than global properties of diffusion. And second, does the resulting simulation gain rising to patterns that convey realistic application to existent processes of social contention? Do nosotros acquire something novel well-nigh social disputation as well as mobilization past times incorporating the additional ingredient of "organization" inward this agency that the Epstein model past times itself does non reveal?
(It should hold upwardly noted that organizations are a peculiar sort of agent. They convey properties that are feature of "complex adaptive systems": they are supra-individual, they are influenced past times the actors they touch, as well as they influence the conduct of the actors they touch. So the behavioral properties of an organisation mayhap should non hold upwardly specified exogenously.)
(NetLogo is a sophisticated modeling parcel that permits researchers to educate small-scale as well as medium-sized agent-based models, as well as it provides a number of relevant examples of simulations that are of involvement to social scientists (link). Particularly interesting for the electrical flow purposes are a simulation of the Epstein model of rebellion discussed before (link) as well as an implementation of an AIDS contagion model that could hold upwardly considered every bit a platform for modeling the spread of an organisation or a laid of ideas every bit good (link). Here is the link for NetLogo:
Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning as well as Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.)
Mobilization occurs at the private level: actors have invitations to membership sequentially, as well as they response according to the internet lawsuit of their electrical flow characteristics. Once an thespian has affiliated, he/she remains susceptible to appeals from other organizations, simply the susceptibility is reduced.
Membership inward an organisation affects an individual's score of appointment inward a laid of grievance issues as well as his/her propensity for action. Individuals may limited their organizational condition at a gain of levels of activism:
- highly engaged
- moderately engaged
- disengaged
This approach suggests evolution of ii stages of simulation: starting fourth dimension a simulation of the contest of ii organizations inside a group; as well as second, a simulation of the individual-level results of calls to activity past times multiple organizations involving a specified distribution of organizational affiliations.
(B) Organizations every bit infection vectors. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 simpler approach is to stand upwardly for the diverse organizations every bit contagious diseases that convey differential infection rates depending on agent properties, as well as differential effects on conduct depending on which "infection" is nowadays inward a given agent. Presumably the likelihood of infection is influenced past times whether the private has already been recruited past times to a greater extent than or less other organization; this needs to hold upwardly represented inward the rules governing infection. It likewise implies that at that topographic point is a fair amount of path dependence inward the simulation: the organisation that starts starting fourth dimension has an payoff over competitors.
It seems it would hold upwardly possible to contain a affliction machinery into the Epstein model to gain a role for organizations inward the occurrence of civil unrest.
Now imagine running the model forwards with ii types of processes occurring simultaneously. The organizations recruit members iteratively as well as the activation condition of each private is calculated on each tick of the model. At each tick every private has a membership condition with honour to the organizations ("infections"), as well as each has an activation score (low, medium, high). When a concentration of, say, 40% of agents are activated to a high score inward a percentage of a given size, this constitutes an episode of uprising / ethnic violence / civil unrest.
Two primal questions arise well-nigh this hypothetical simulation. First, is the simulation supposition that "organizational mobilization is similar an infectious disease" a reasonable one? Or does organizational mobilization convey unlike structural as well as population dynamics than the spread of a disease? For example, diseases percolate through conduct contact; mayhap organizational mobilization has to a greater extent than global properties of diffusion. And second, does the resulting simulation gain rising to patterns that convey realistic application to existent processes of social contention? Do nosotros acquire something novel well-nigh social disputation as well as mobilization past times incorporating the additional ingredient of "organization" inward this agency that the Epstein model past times itself does non reveal?
(It should hold upwardly noted that organizations are a peculiar sort of agent. They convey properties that are feature of "complex adaptive systems": they are supra-individual, they are influenced past times the actors they touch, as well as they influence the conduct of the actors they touch. So the behavioral properties of an organisation mayhap should non hold upwardly specified exogenously.)
(NetLogo is a sophisticated modeling parcel that permits researchers to educate small-scale as well as medium-sized agent-based models, as well as it provides a number of relevant examples of simulations that are of involvement to social scientists (link). Particularly interesting for the electrical flow purposes are a simulation of the Epstein model of rebellion discussed before (link) as well as an implementation of an AIDS contagion model that could hold upwardly considered every bit a platform for modeling the spread of an organisation or a laid of ideas every bit good (link). Here is the link for NetLogo:
Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning as well as Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.)
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