Source: Pfautz too Salwen ( link ) An before shipping service addressed the interrogation of the dynamics through which a stable commun...
Source: Pfautz too Salwen (link)
An before shipping service addressed the interrogation of the dynamics through which a stable community consisting of multiple groups may get to polarize too fission into antagonisms too conflict. I speculated in that place that the tools of agent-based modeling mightiness endure of utilization here. What I had inwards take away heed was something similar this. Suppose nosotros receive got an urban population spread across infinite inwards a distribution that reflects a marking of differentiation of residence past times income, religion, too race. Suppose faith is to a greater extent than segregated than either income or race across the region. And suppose nosotros receive got to a greater extent than or less background theoretical beliefs nigh social networks, civic associations, communication processes too other factors influencing a disposition to mobilize. Perhaps ABM methods could let us to probe unlike scenarios to come across what effects these unlike settings create for polarization too conflict.
There is a fair amount of effort at modeling this form of social phenomena inside the champaign of social simulation. Carlos Lemos et al supply an overview of applications of ABM techniques inwards social conflict too civil violence inwards "Agent-based modeling of social conflict, civil violence too revolution: state-of-the-art-review too farther prospects" (link). Here is an overview declaration of their findings nigh i specific approach, the threshold-based approach:
Social conflict, civil violence too revolution ABM are inspired on classical models that utilization uncomplicated threshold-based rules to stand upwards for collective conduct too contagion effects, such every bit Schelling’s model of segregation [7] too Granovetter’s model of collective conduct [15]. Granovetter’s model is a theoretical description of social contagion or peer effects: each agent a has a threshold Ta too decides to plough “active” – e.g. bring together a protestation or riot – when the number of other agents joining exceeds its threshold. Granovetter showed that sure enough initial distributions of the threshold tin precipitate a chain reaction that leads to the activation of the entire population, whereas alongside other distributions exclusively a few agents plough active. (section 3.1)Here is a diagram of their way of conceptualizing the actors too the processes of social conflict into which they are sometimes mobilized.
Armano Srbljinovic too colleagues effort to model the emergence of ethnic conflict in "An Agent-Based Model of Ethnic Mobilisation" (link). Their master copy impulse is to meliorate explicate the emergence of polarized too antagonistic ethnic conflict inwards the quondam Yugoslavia; their method of approach is to prepare an agent-based model that mightiness capture to a greater extent than or less of the parameters that stimulate or inhibit ethnic mobilization. They advert to the embracing projection as "Social Correlates of the Homeland War". They believe an ABM tin potentially illuminate the messy too complex processes of ethnic mobilization observed on the ground:
Our to a greater extent than moderate goals are based on a seemingly reasonable supposition that the results observed inwards a simplified, artificial guild could give us to a greater extent than or less clues of what is going on, or perchance demo us where to centre our attending inwards farther too to a greater extent than detailed exam of a to a greater extent than complex real-world society. (paragraph 1.4)They pull the eighties too nineties inwards this percentage inwards these terms:
So, past times the halt of the eighties too the outset of the nineties, the ethnic roles inwards the guild of the quondam Yugoslavia, that were kept toward the middle of Banton's social roles-scale for to a greater extent than than 40 years, straight off nether the influence of political entrepreneurs, increased inwards importance. (paragraph 2.5)And they would similar to explicate to a greater extent than or less aspects of the dynamics of this transition. They unmarried out a handful of of import social characteristics of individuals inwards the region: (a) ethnic membership, (b) ethnic mobilization, (c) civic mobilization, (d)grievance degree, (e) social network, (f) environmental conditions, and (g) appeals to action. Each thespian inwards the model is assigned a value for factors a-e; environmental atmospheric condition are specified; too diverse patterns of appeals are inserted into the scheme over a number of trials
The algorithm of the model calculates the marking of mobilization intensity for all the agents every bit a component division of the frequency of appeals, the antecedent grievance bird of the agent, too a few features of the agents' social networks. If nosotros add together a noun hypothesis nigh the threshold of M later on which grouping activeness arises, nosotros too so receive got a model of the occurrence of ethnic strife.
The model uses a "SWARM" methodology. It postulates 200 agents, one-half ruddy too one-half blue; too it calculates for each agent a bird of mobilization intensity for a sequence of times, according to the next formula:
- mi(t+1) = mi(t) + (miapp + misocnet + micool)Δt (paragraph 3.8)
This is a rattling interesting experiment inwards modeling of a complex interactive social process. But it also raises several of import issues. One matter that is apparent from careful scrutiny of this model is that it is hard to split "veridical" results from artifacts. For example, consider this diagram:
Is the periodicity shown past times Red too Blue mobilization intensities a existent effect, or is it an artifact of the blueprint of the model?
Second, it is of import to notice the arrive at of factors the simulation does non consider, which theorists similar Tilly would mean value to endure crucial: character of leadership, character too intensity of organization, content of appeals, differential pathways of appeals, too diverseness of political psychologies across agents. This simulation captures several of import aspects of this exceptional form of collective action. But it omits a swell bargain of substantial factors that theorists of collective activeness would receive got to endure critical elements of the dynamics of the situation.
Here is a minute instance of an effort to copy aspects of ethnic mobilization provided past times Stacey Pfautz too Michael Salwen, "A Hybrid Model of Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency too Social Strife" (link). Pfautz too Salwen pull their piece of occupation inwards these terms:
Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency too Social Strife (ERIS) is a comprehensive, multi-level model of ethnic conflict that simulates how population dynamics impact solid ground determination making and, inwards turn, response to solid ground actions too policies. Population pressures (e.g., relocation, civil unrest) deport on too are affected past times solid ground actions. The long term finish of ERIS is to back upwards operations evolution too analyses, enabling armed services planners to evaluate evolving situations, anticipate the emergence of ethnic conflict too its negative consequences, prepare courses of activeness to defuse ethnic conflict, too mitigate the minute too tertiary monastic enjoin effects of U.S.A. actions on ethnic conflict. (211)They advert to theirs every bit a hybrid model, incorporating a macro-level "systems dynamics" model too a micro-level ABM model. Their model thence attempts to stand upwards for both micro too macro causal forces on ethnic mobilization, illustrated inwards the diagram at the top. This model increases the bird of "realism" inwards the assumptions represented inwards the simulation. Agents are heterogeneous, too their decision-making is contextualized to place on a GIS grid.
Agents stand upwards for G individuals too are uniform alongside abide by to religious affiliation. Agents are sampled alongside abide by to historic flow too sexual activity ratio; however, skew sampling is used to practise agents alongside unlike demographic profiles alongside abide by to these attributes. Agents also receive got attributes to capture propensities to conflict too tolerance, which deport on agent conduct too interact inwards the aggregate alongside the macro-level model to localize reports of conflict. (212)Key variables inwards their simulation are religious identity, demographic change, population density, the history of recent inter-group conflict, too geographical location. The activeness infinite for individuals is: movement location, mobilize for violence. And their model is calibrated to existent information drawn from iv states inwards Northwest India. Their basic finding is this: "Conflict is predicted inwards this model where islands or peninsulas of i ethnicity are surrounded past times a ocean of to a greater extent than or less other (Figure 2.1)."
Kent McClelland offers a computational model that responds to Randall Collins' concepts of "C-Escalation" too "D-Escalation" inwards inter-group conflict. McClelland's slice is "CYCLES OF CONFLICT Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 Computational Modeling Alternative to Collins’s Theory of Conflict Escalation" (link). Here is how he describes his approach:
In this paper, I utilization a variation of systems theory to build a multi-agent computational model of dynamic social interaction that shows how the conflict-escalation processes described past times Collins tin endure generated inwards figurer simulations. Like his, my model relies on feedback loops, but the mathematical formulas inwards my model utilization negative feedback loops, rather than positive feedback loops, to generate the collective processes of positive feedback described inwards Collins’s model of conflict escalation. My analysis relies on perceptual command theory (PCT), a dynamic-systems model of human behavior, which proposes that neural circuits inwards the encephalon are organized into hierarchies of negative-feedback command systems, too that individuals utilization these command systems to manipulate their ain environments inwards monastic enjoin to command the flow of perceptual input inwards accordance alongside their internally generated preferences too expectations. (6)Lars-Erik Cederman uses an ABM approach to model geopolitical boundaries (link). Here is how he describes his goals:
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 decade ago, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, Yugoslavia started to disintegrate, too Deutschland reunified. Marking the halt of the Cold War, these epochal events illustrate vividly that modify inwards footing politics features non simply policy shifts but also tin deport on states' boundaries and, sometimes, their rattling existence. Clearly, whatsoever theory aspiring to explicate such transformations or, to a greater extent than generally, the longue durée of history, must endogenize the actors themselves.Cederman's model incorporates 3 primary dynamics: "Emergent Polarity" (the thought that boundaries termination from a procedure of conquest); "Democratic Cooperation" (the thought that "Democracy" functions every bit a tag facilitating cooperation amid subsets of actors); too "Nationalist Systems Change" (the thought that boundaries termination from actors seeking locations placing them inwards proximity to other actors possessing the same ethnic identity).
The electrical current newspaper describes how agent based modeling tin endure used to capture transformations of this boundary transforming kind. This is a unlike declaration from that advanced past times most agent-based modelers, who resort to computational methods because they lend themselves to exploring heterogeneous too boundedly rational, but otherwise fixed, actors inwards complex social environments (1, 2). Without discounting the importance of this research, I volition utilization illustrations from my ain modeling framework to illustrate how it is possible to larn beyond this mostly behavioral agenda. The primary emphasis volition endure on the contribution of specific computational techniques to conceptualization of hard to grasp notions such every bit agency, culture, too identity. Although a consummate specification of the models goes beyond the electrical current scope, the newspaper closes alongside a give-and-take of to a greater extent than or less of their fundamental findings.
Here is a diagram representing stylized results of the simulation.
Epstein, Steinbruner, too Parker offering a model of civil violence (link). Here are the parameters that are assigned to all actors (population too cops): grievance, hardship, perceived legitimacy, take away chances aversiveness, champaign of vision, cyberspace risk, location, too determination to act. This is a rattling uncomplicated analysis of collective action, manifestly derivative from a rational-choice approach. Each thespian decides to human activeness or non depending on his/her calculation of take away chances too hardship/grievance. These assumptions are vastly weaker than those offered past times students of contentious politics similar McAdam, Tarrow, too Tilly; but they generate interesting collective results when embodied inwards a generative ABM.
This enquiry is specifically interesting inwards the context of the interrogation posed hither nigh fissioning. Consider this serial of frames from an animation reflecting the results of random fluctuation of densities inwards an ethnically mixed community:
Peaceful coexistence
Animation of procedure leading to ethnic separation / ethnic cleansing
With "peace-keepers" the results are different:
These are interesting results. Plainly the presence or absence of peace-enforcers is relevant to the extent of ethnic violence that occurs. But notice i time once again how lean the behavioral assumptions are. The simulations essentially serve to calculate the interactive effects of this exceptional laid of assumptions nigh agents' conduct -- alongside no powerfulness to stand upwards for organizations, communication, variations inwards motivation, etc.
All these models warrant study. They effort to codify the conduct of individuals inside geographic too social infinite too to piece of occupation out the dynamics of interaction that result. But it is rattling of import to recognize the limitations of these models every bit predictors of outcomes inwards specific periods too locations of unrest. These simulation models belike don't shed much lite on exceptional episodes of disceptation inwards Arab Republic of Egypt or Tunisia during the Arab Spring. The "qualitative" theories of disceptation that receive got been developed belike shed to a greater extent than lite on the dynamics of disceptation than the simulations practise at this indicate inwards their development.
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