A Causal Narrative?

source: Edward Tufte, edwardtufte.com In a recent post I referred to the thought of a causal narrative ( link ). Here I would similar ...

source: Edward Tufte, edwardtufte.com

In a recent post I referred to the thought of a causal narrative (link). Here I would similar to sketch out what I had inwards hear there.

Essentially the thought is that a causal narrative of a complicated lawsuit or occurrence is an orderly analysis of the sequence of events too the causal processes that connected them, leading from a fix of initial atmospheric condition to the lawsuit inwards question. The narrative pulls together our best agreement of the causal relations, mechanisms, too atmospheric condition that were involved inwards the procedure too arranges them inwards an appropriate temporal order. It is a serial of answers to "why too how did X occur?" designed to plow over us an agreement of the amount unfolding of the process.

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 narrative is to a greater extent than than an explanation; it is an endeavour to “tell the story” of a complicated outcome. So a causal narrative volition include a pose out of causal claims, intersecting inwards such a agency equally to explicate the complex lawsuit or procedure that is of interest. And inwards my view, it volition live on a pluralistic account, inwards that it volition freely invoke a pose out of causal ideas: powers, mechanisms, necessary too sufficient conditions, instigating conditions, too so forth.

Here is how I characterized a historical narrative inwards New Contributions to the Philosophy of History:

What is a narrative? Most generally, it is an employment organisation human relationship of the unfolding of events, along amongst an effort to explicate how too why these processes too events came to be. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 narrative is intended to furnish an employment organisation human relationship of how a complex historical lawsuit unfolded too why. We desire to empathize the lawsuit inwards time. What were the contextual features that were relevant to the lawsuit — the settings at 1 or to a greater extent than points inwards fourth dimension that played a role? What were the actions too choices that agents performed, too why did they accept these actions rather than other possible choices? What causal processes—either social or natural—may possess got played a purpose inwards bringing the basis to the lawsuit of interest? (29)

We powerfulness illustrate this thought past times looking at the approach taken to contentious episodes too periods past times McAdam, Tarrow, too Tilly inwards Dynamics of Contention. In their handling of diverse contentious periods, they interruption the given complex menses of tilt into a pose out of mechanisms too processes, conjoined amongst contingent too conjunctural occurrences that played a meaning causal purpose inwards the outcome. The explanatory function that their employment organisation human relationship provides occurs at ii levels: the regain of a relatively pocket-size pose out of social mechanisms of tilt that recur across multiple cases, too the construction of complex narratives for item episodes that convey together their agreement of the mechanisms too processes that were inwards play inwards this item case.

We retrieve what happens inside a revolutionary trajectory tin dismiss amend live on understood equally the final result of the intersection of a pose out of causal mechanisms. We make non offering a systematic employment organisation human relationship of all such mechanisms too their interaction inwards a sample of revolutionary situations. Instead, nosotros utilization a paired comparing of the Nicaraguan revolution of 1979 too the Chinese pupil rebellion of 1989 to nix inwards on 1 processes inwards particular: the defection of meaning elements from a dominant ruling coalition. (kl 2465)

The narrative for a item instance (the Mau Mau uprising, for example) takes the shape of a chronologically structured employment organisation human relationship of the mechanisms that their analysis identifies equally having been relevant inwards the unfolding of the insurgent motility too the government's responses. MTT plow over attending to "episodes" inside larger processes, amongst the clear implication that the episodes are to unopen to score independent from each other too are amenable to a mechanisms analysis themselves. So a narrative is both a concatenated serial of episodes too a nested fix of mechanisms too processes.

Robert Bates introduces a similar thought inwards Analytic Narratives nether the rubric of “analytic narrative”. The principal divergence betwixt his notion too mine is that his employment organisation human relationship is express to the utilization of game theory too rational selection theory to furnish the linkages inside the chronological account, whereas I desire to permit a pluralistic agreement of the kinds too levels of causes that are relevant to social processes.

Here is a brief employment organisation human relationship of what Bates too his collaborators hateful past times an analytic narrative:

The chapters thus build narratives. But the narratives are analytic narratives. By modeling the processes that produced the outcomes, nosotros essay to capture the essence of stories. Should nosotros possess a valid representation of the story, so the equilibrium of the model should imply the lawsuit nosotros describe—and essay to explain. Our utilization of rational selection too game theory transforms the narratives into analytic narratives. Our approach thence occupies a complex middle basis betwixt ideographic too nomothetic reasoning. (12)
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As possess got others, however, nosotros essay to render to the rich, qualitative, too descriptive materials that narratives offer. And, equally possess got others, nosotros essay an explicit too logically rigorous employment organisation human relationship of the events nosotros describe… We essay to locate too explore item mechanisms that shape the interplay betwixt strategic actors too that thereby generate outcomes. Second, virtually of these [other] literatures are structural: they focus on the origins too touching on of alignments, cleavages, structures, too institutions. Our approach, past times contrast, focuses on choices too decisions. It is thus to a greater extent than micro than macro inwards orientation. By delineating specific mechanisms too focusing on the determinants too impacts of choices, our function differs from our predecessors. (12-13)

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 narrative typically offers an employment organisation human relationship of an historically item lawsuit or process: the outbreak of a specific war, the emergence of ethnic conflict at a specific house too time, or the occurrence of a fiscal crisis. This places narratives on the side of particular social-science analysis. Is at that topographic point a purpose for generalization inwards relation to narratives? I retrieve that MTT would advise that at that topographic point is not, when it comes to large lawsuit groups similar revolutions. There is no mutual template of revolutionary mobilization too regime collapse; instead, at that topographic point are local too national interactions that found recurring mechanisms, too it is the trouble of the social scientist to regain the linkages too contingencies through which these diverse mechanisms led to revolution inwards this instance or that. MTT examine to detect a middle basis betwixt particularity too generalization:

Have nosotros solely rediscovered narrative history too applied to it a new, scientistic vocabulary? We retrieve not. While convinced of the futility of deducing full general roofing laws of contention, nosotros retrieve our computer program -- if it succeeds -- volition uncover recurring sets of mechanisms that combine into robust processes which, inwards turn, recur over a surprising pose out too wide arrive at of episodes. (kl 3936)

In my view, anyway, a narrative describes a item procedure or event; only it does so past times identifying recurring processes, mechanisms, too forces that tin dismiss live on discerned inside the unfolding of the case. So generalizability comes into the story at the bird of the components of the narrative -- the regain of mutual social processes inside the historically unique sequence of events.